General Evaluation of Immediate Past Plan of Nepal (15th Periodic Plan)

General Evaluation of Immediate Past Plan of Nepal (15th Periodic Plan)

Background and Overview

The immediate past plan of Nepal is the 15th periodic plan. The Fifteenth Plan (2019/20 - 2023/24) of Nepal was formulated as a part of the country’s long-term development vision aimed at transitioning Nepal to a high-income country by 2043/44. This plan emphasized generating prosperity and happiness by enhancing economic growth through robust economic, social, and physical infrastructures.

Key Objectives and Targets

The Fifteenth Plan had several key objectives:

1. Economic Growth: Targeted an average economic growth rate of 10.3%.
2. Per Capita Income: Aimed to increase per capita income from $1047 to $1595.
3. Poverty Reduction: Sought to reduce the population living below the poverty line from 18.7% to 9.5%.
4. Infrastructure Development: Planned significant investments in transportation, ICT, energy, education, healthcare, and urbanization.
5. Social Development: Focused on improving literacy rates, healthcare access, and social security coverage.

Major Achievements

Despite facing numerous challenges, the Fifteenth Plan achieved notable progress in several areas:

1. Internet Usage: There was a significant increase in internet users and the adoption of electronic economic transactions.
2. Social Indicators: Improvements were seen in literacy rates and access to basic social security.
3. Economic Sectors: Although the targeted growth in the primary and secondary sectors was not fully achieved, there was still progress in certain areas.

Challenges and Shortcomings

The Fifteenth Plan faced substantial challenges that hindered its overall performance:

• COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic had a devastating impact on Nepal’s economy, resulting in an economic growth rate of -2.4% in FY 2076/77. The GDP loss was estimated at Rs. 2.89 trillion and Rs. 3.33 trillion in FY 2076/77 and FY 2077/78, respectively.
• Natural Disasters: An earthquake in the western part of Nepal in FY 2080 caused significant economic and human losses.
• Investment Environment: Adverse conditions, including long trade disruptions at southern border points, affected investment climate and economic stability.

Quantitative Evaluation of Immediate Past Plan of Nepal

The following table presents the major quantitative targets and their status by the end of the Fifteenth Plan:

S.N.	Indicators	Status in FY 2018/19	Target for FY 2023/24
1	Economic growth (average) %	6.8	10.3
2	Per capita national income ($)	1047	1595
3	Population under the poverty line (absolute poverty) (%)	18.7	9.5
4	Gini coefficient based on property	0.31	0.29
5	Electricity generation (installed capacity MW)	1250	5820
6	National and provincial highways (up to two lanes KM)	7794	33000
7	Railroads (KM)	42	2200
8	Population with access to the internet (%)	65.9	100
9	Literacy rate (above 15 years)	58	99
10	Population with access to improved drinking water (%)	89	99
11	Population covered by basic social security (%)	17	100
12	Gender development index	0.897	0.990
13	Human Development Index (HDI)	0.579	0.624

Lessons Learned

The evaluation of the Fifteenth Plan reveals several key lessons:

1. Resilience and Adaptability: There is a need for plans to be more resilient and adaptable to unexpected challenges such as pandemics and natural disasters.
2. Investment Climate: Improving the investment climate is crucial for sustained economic growth and development.
3. Targeted Interventions: More focused and effective interventions are necessary in sectors like health, education, and infrastructure to achieve desired outcomes.

Conclusion

The Fifteenth Plan of Nepal had mixed outcomes, achieving significant progress in certain areas while falling short in others due to unforeseen challenges. The lessons learned from this plan are critical for informing and shaping future development strategies, including the current Sixteenth Plan, to ensure more robust and resilient economic and social development.